Derf, With HSY, I see it more as a longer term turnaround play than as a trading stock. It's down by 1/3, so probably will take time to come back into favor. But it's been a solid stock over the long haul, and has an excellent 'brand'. Also, if Buffett was interested a few years back, that indicates it's a worthy long term holding.
Speaking of Buffett, there is apparently a 'mystery stock' that he's been accumulating, but has chosen not to report it in the last two quarterly filings. If he liked HSY several years ago, but valuation was the problem, the 1/3 haircut should have corrected that aspect. Who knows, but either way I figure HSY is good enough for a small position as a long term buy / hold, though it will require patience.
I figure the key with turnarounds is determining whether the bottom is actually in or not. If it is, the next question is whether it's ready to start recovering yet? Using GNRC as an example, I figure the bottom is in (based on the chart), but for whatever reason it hasn't been ready to recover yet. Anyway, I figure it's probably best to stay away from most turnarounds. Buffett said the problem with turnarounds is that they rarely turnaround. But I think he was referring to stocks that have really been blasted, down 50%, 75%, etc. Something like HSY (down 30%) would be more of a 'correction'.
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