Easka, according to the Guggenheim presentation, Lalwani stated that by using guidance provided in Q3 release, ANIP should end the with over $200 million in cash. This means that they should add at least $7 million in net income, in spite of paying up to $25 million in Gross Profit Earn-outs.
According to the Q3 10-Q filing, there was a 100 % probability of paying the earnout in Q4 with an assumed 9%-13% discount. This equates to an earnout payment of $21.75 to $22.75 million.
Assuming ANIP’s margins and expenses were consistent with the last two quarter, in order for ANIP to generate a net income of $7 million, after paying the earnout, ANIP should report revenues of approximately $145 million for Q4.
This would be 24.46% higher than Q2 revenue. Lalwani's comments and guidance created a fear of revenue pullback which saw PPS drop from $63.64 (close the day before Q3 earnings release).
I expect Q4 earnings and 2024 guidance will put those concerns to bed and see PPS retrace to $63.64 and continue climbing above the current price target of $71.67.
JMHO
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