Hi blownaccount9 - generally agree with you - thanks for sharing.
Assuming this ever happens - my hunch is that the commons trade heavy to start but there will be a significant multiple expansion over time. Institutions and index related funds will be large buyers and will continue to buy because the GSEs will have significant market caps and will have become significant market cap weighted components of the financial subsector of the S&P 500. Multiple expansion may happen as institutions become market weigh holders of the GSEs so not to have tracking error vs the indices. For example - BAC has approximately a 265 bn market cap - it will be like having BAC go public or even bigger
The key will be to hold a core common holdings to participate in multiple expansion without cap gain taxes. Maybe hold a core in a separate taxable account - trade your Roth but hold a core in your taxable account until the UST is long gone.
You will change your mind about #2 once you sit through a restructuring.
If you want an interesting case history you should look up $SDRL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seadrill - In December 2017, the company filed bankruptcy.[12][13][14] The company emerged from bankruptcy in July 2018.[15] - On December 1, 2020, Seadrill filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time.[20] The company emerged from Chapter 11 in February 2022 and a new Board of Directors was appointed.[21] - On January 12, 2022, Seadrill New Finance, Seadrill's subsidiary, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company emerged from bankruptcy on January 20, 2022.[22]
Went through three restructurings in quick succession over the span of 5 short years.
Each/every time, commons got diluted 98%+ but the kicker here is that new money came in Every. Single. Time.
Until you sit through one of these on your own, you won't really understand #2 and the how unforgiving the world works. For the better or for the worse, Tim howard has never been through one and thus writes it off completely.
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