Replies to post #110313 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

NYCB

Is it really Pessimistic. Lets Play Some numbers.

Average Interest earnings Assets are about 104 Billion (Q4 Levels)

Nims 2.40%-2.50% (Was 2.82% in q4)

Net Interest Income 570-620 Million

Non Interest Expense 2.3 Billion-2.4 Billion

(104000 *.0245)+595-2350

2548M Net Interest Income
595M Non interest Income
3143M Total Revs
-2345M Non Interest Expense
798M Before Taxes and Provisons.
Provisions : This is the hard part, I could see this being much worse but say 398 Million, which is less than 100 Million a quarter, They had almost 200 Million in chargeoff this quarter. So I don't think I'm being overly negative.
That leaves us with 400 Million before income taxes
Net income equals 308 million, minus 32 million for preferred stock divies.=276 Million

To be fair this is an slightly optimistic point of view. And that comes out to about .38 for the FY. We have a increasing expese, and declining NIMS Story here, with declining loans, and asset quality that is not great either to say the least. You can talk about book value, I call it book trap in this case. This stock is far from cheap, and buying a stock with these kind of problems in my opinion in this industry when so many others don't have these kind of issues, I rather own some form of quality versus what I see here.

Let me recap
-Massive Declining Nims.
-Negative Loan Growth
-Not great Asset quality
-Higher expenses
-Based on guidance, Trading at about 20x going foward at least high teens multiple at the very least even if we are optimistic. Very expensive compared to other regionals.

Yeah maybe you can trade it, but you can essentially put all the bank stocks in a hat and pick one out and get a better earnings report from a bank. And trust me there have been a lot of not great earnings reports with banks this quarter. But NYCB is the winner of the worst report I seen. So why own that? All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.