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Brooge warrants cancelled

12/28/23 10:04 AM

#779921 RE: bradford86 #779915

140? since when
weren't they always 33B?

Wise Man

12/28/23 10:16 AM

#779928 RE: bradford86 #779915

Bradford, you are clueless about stock valuation. Lol

FOFreddie

12/28/23 11:07 AM

#779939 RE: bradford86 #779915

Hi Glenn,

Have you read this CBO Paper?

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/52089-gse-report-onecol.pdf

Interesting proposal to convert UST equity to 10 year UST notes and pay UST the interest income.

FOFreddie

12/28/23 11:19 AM

#779942 RE: bradford86 #779915

Hi Glenn,

Here is an excerpt from the CBO Restructuring Paper:

Junior preferred shareholders are in line to receive the dividends associated with their shares before holders of new or existing common shares. Thus, they might refuse to allow the GSEs to retire their claims on the GSEs’ assets and income at less than the face value of their shares in the lead-up to a sale of new common stock. That refusal would reduce the value of the new common shares, making recapitalization more difficult. Even though the Treasury’s preferred shares have seniority over the preconservatorship preferred shares owned by investors, the Treasury would have an incentive to make an arrangement that took into account its ownership stake in the GSEs’ common stock.

Alternatives to the approach used in CBO’s model—such as having holders of junior preferred shares take reductions before the Treasury, or reducing both classes of preferred shares equally—would increase the proceeds received by the Treasury. However, those alternatives would not have a large effect on the results of this analysis, CBO estimates.

If FHFA put the GSEs in receivership, it might be able to transfer some of their assets and liabilities to a new corporation to which no existing shareholders had a claim. The new corporation could then sell common stock and use the proceeds to capitalize itself and to reimburse shareholders in the old GSEs according to the priority of their claims. That priority order would require senior preferred stock to be redeemed before any junior preferred or common stock.

If, however, the Treasury wanted to raise capital through the sale of new common shares without resorting to receivership for the GSEs, the claims of junior preferred shareholders would have to be addressed. In this analysis, those shareholders are paid the full $35 billion face value of their shares from the proceeds of the common-stock sale, if possible, thus retiring their claims on the assets and income of the recapitalized GSEs. In addition, if possible, the [i]Treasury liquidates its senior preferred shares and its warrants [/i]for common shares at the time of the common-stock sale. (Previously, when the Treasury provided financial commitments to private firms during the financial crisis, it exited from those commitments in multiple stages.31 A staged exit might work with the GSEs, but for simplicity, CBO’s recapitalization scenarios do not incorporate that approach.)

HappyAlways

12/28/23 11:25 AM

#779944 RE: bradford86 #779915

Fannie’s jps is worth $13.9B at face value. Better check your calculation again.

FOFreddie

12/28/23 11:46 AM

#779953 RE: bradford86 #779915

Hi Glenn,

This are the assumptions assuming a 4.5 ECRF:

"With projected assets of nearly $6.7 trillion at the beginning of 2025, the GSEs would need about $300 billion in capital to meet the 4.5 percent requirement (see Table 3, Scenario 2). By the end of 2024, they would have accumulated about $128 billion in capital (the $24 billion on hand at the end of December 2019 plus $104 billion from five years of retained earnings). As a result, they would need to cover a shortfall of approximately $172 billion through the sale of common stock."

The GSEs have accumulated approximately $ 20 bn more in Net Worth than projected. 3Q 2023 is $ 118.3 - assume $ 148 bn in 5 quarter? If we get a 2.5% ECRF and a 3 year stock sale the required outside capital really narrows. Assume $ 8 bn net assets at 2.5% ( what should we assume for net assets in 2028?) which is $ 200bn. If we are at $ 148 bn at end of 2024 and we accumulate $ 25 bn per year in earnings during a 3 year stock sale we would have $ 225 bn in Net Worth minus divs paid on JPS and common stock at the end of 2027.

How much new equity would we need really - $ 25 bn at 2.5% ECRF?