Still likely to be completed before Election Day remains Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal prosecution of defendant Trump for his alleged scheme to overturn the 2020 election, which had been set for trial on March 4, 2024. That date has been put on hold pending appellate review of the trial court’s rejection of defendant Trump‘s presidential immunity. On Friday, the Supreme Court declined Mr. Smith’s request for immediate review of the question, but the appeal is still headed to the high court on a rocket docket. That is because the D.C. Circuit will hear oral argument on Jan. 9 and likely issue a decision within days of that, setting up a prompt return to the Supreme Court. Moreover, with three other criminal cases also set for trial in 2024, it is entirely likely that defendant Trump will have at least one criminal conviction before November 2024.
To be clear, we should always be cautious of polls this early in the race posing hypothetical questions. Investors can know only what they think they will know about something that has yet to happen.
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