Replies to post #778398 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[bradford86]

Actual analysis— you should try it sometime

[JOoa0ky]

I feel like you missed all of the FnF news/events of 2023 and you're basing your knowledge off of pre-2023.

[kthomp19]

Here is a Yahoo Finance link to the closing price for those two dates for FNMAS.

It went from $2.35 to $1.05 for a loss of $1.30 per share.

The plaintiffs sought a total of $1.6B before pre-judgment interest, which is the total share value lost by all preferred series and FMCC combined. It came out to about $760M for the Fannie juniors and $780M for the Freddie juniors.

However, the jury only awarded $299.4M of the $760.44M that the plaintiffs sought, so prorating that for FNMAS gives $1.30 * $299.4M / $760M = $0.51 per share.

Fannie juniors were awarded pre-judgment interest at 5.75% simple. As of today it has been roughly 11.33 years since the NWS was signed, so $0.51 * (1 + 0.0575 * 11.33) = $0.84. That's a bit less than the $0.85 I quoted, probably because I think I used 12 years of pre-judgment interest in past calculations because I don't expect any money to actually be paid until appeals have been exhausted, and we're at least 8 months away from that.

You can run the same calculations for any Fannie series by replacing FNMAS with some other series name in that Yahoo Finance URL.

For Freddie, replace the FNMAS in the URL, multiply by $281.M and divide by $780M to prorate the jury award, and don't add pre-judgment interest.