Replies to post #250120 on Biotech Values

[novicetrader]

GPCR-if we look only at the weightloss side, a 4.7% decrease in 8 weeks isn't too bad,IMO. But since today's result is primarily for Diabetes, overall doesn't look great.Was wondering if the drug can be looked at only from the weight angle, will they need to start a freshTrial? Or, can they go ahead with the data & diverge into just a weightloss strategy? Many more players will be needed in the weight loss category, besides the 2 bigwigs(LLY & Novo)

[Mufaso]

I agree it is related to the disappointing efficacy in weight loss topline numbers (just got done listening to the cc) but more so from the non-diabetic population study arm where they released "interim results" rather than the results from the diabetic arm.

The stock originally advanced considerably in September based on the Phase 1b in a non diabetic population results which showed after 4 weeks a weight loss of 4.9% placebo adjusted after 28 days of dosing at the highest dose of 90mg for n=5. The phase 1b result was an outstanding result and if it was to be believed it was setting the bar very high. Today they released interim data from their Phase 2a obesity study at 8 wks and after titrating up to 120 mg for n=24 (note this was a higher dose than the ph1b) they only got 4.74% placebo adjusted weight loss. So it was a longer time frame at a higher end dose and a worse result! On the CC, someone asked for a reason that the 2a was actually worse than the 1b study and the answer was "sample size" and also noted that they titrated up to the 120 mg dose size. So the stock originally shot up from 35 back in September and now has come back to where it was prior to the PH1 data release. As a side note- I was surprised by them releasing the data interim data on this study arm as they previously stated as recently as - this was the study arm that was originally problematic where in the final week 12 of the study, 24 patients were not weighed.

Here is a link to the presentation from the CC https://ir.structuretx.com/static-files/0d3fd5ff-f8d9-4a49-b918-ddc9e6f4b88f

Slide 22 shows a efficacy comparison to Orforglipron from LLY. There you can see that the ph2a results in the non diabetic obesity arm are at best equal to Orforglipron in the same time frame. For the T2D arms, GSBR-1290 was less a fair amount less efficacious than Orforglipron for weight loss at the same time frame.

With respect to AE's, they had some decent data. They had very few discontinuations which was impressive. But the efficacy data for weight loss clearly disappointed after setting such high expectations from phase 1 IMO.