Replies to post #249918 on Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

I strongly believe Viking has a great future. We have to keep in mind it is only in the first or second inning in the obesity arena so it'll take time to see what happens.

jbog,

I don't know anything about obesity/weight loss drugs so may have missed the boat. Which drugs/companies ones do you favor?

[Mufaso]

Jbog, replying to your comments

I strongly believe Viking has a great future. We have to keep in mind it is only in the first or second inning in the obesity arena so it'll take time to see what happens.

Agreed

At $1.5 Bil marketcap, while that isn't outlandish it seems a little ahead of itself.

Debateable- Still undervalued IMO even after today's run to $1.75 at time of this post. My basis is that they had an offering in late March at around a 1.5 bill market cap which seemed fair at the time. (Just after phase one top line results announced for VK2735). Since that time “Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) said ...that results from an ongoing phase 2b trial of VK2809 to treat patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis met its primary endpoint of statistically significant reductions in liver fat content. The company said the findings demonstrated robust and comparable liver fat reductions among patients with or without Type 2 diabetes, as well as patients with either F2 or F3 fibrosis." These data demonstrate that VK2809's potential therapeutic activity is not meaningfully impacted by the presence of Type 2 diabetes or by patients' stage of fibrosis," the company said in a release. "The data are important as the presence of liver fat and associated lipotoxicity are believed to play a contributing role in the onset and progression of NASH." This was a really big deal not appreciated by the market. Also more data was released at obesity week on VK2735 showing it also had a robust impact on liver fat, which is another big deal not appreciated by the market. On the other hand, Structure therapeutics data is a real competitive threat to VK2809 oral aspirations. All told I think that the on market cap of 2 billion is more reasonable at this point. However because I have FOMO, I'm still adding at these prices. If VK 2809 shows that it impacts fibrosis in F3 patients next year or VK 2809 surprises positively and oral weight loss, the share price rise will be large and I expect a buy out at a very large premium.

While Lilly and Novo recently purchased "bolt on" assets in this field I would think their main goal is to put them in the freezer until needed.

Agreed on Lily, disagree on capital NVO. Novo will start to have problems competing with Zepbound/Mounjaro as Lily brings on additional manufacturing capacity. FYI-in addition to NVO I think several would be interested in buying out Viking. ( ABBV, NVS, PFE, Gilead and Boehringer Ingelheim)

I saw Vinmantoo asked you

I don't know anything about obesity/weight loss drugs so may have missed the boat. Which drugs/companies ones do you favor?

I’m interested in your answer as well