Replies to post #20763 on Medicine Man Technologies Inc (SHWZ)

[In Plain Sight]

The chart. You have written what I believe is clearly misunderstood by your interpretation. The bar chart represents a combined R Greenleaf and Everest sales from April '22 for both medical and recreational as separate color bands (despite the companies not yet being joined in April '22) This was made by the poster on Twitter and disclosed as such as a combined chart. I believe that is correct.

The top number is rec (not a total) of the two as written, while the midline or lower number is medical as written for both companies as reported. Add them for the total (see vertical Y axis to the far left which is different scale value than these separate numbers as depicted separately) Perhaps the total is something more than what you are not adding inspite of the relative decline and new stores which have increased over the X axis timeline?

Yes, there is obvious compression as shown while dispensaries increased monthly (not noted on the chart as a total per month) but we know by NMRLD a recorded 1 additional Everest in September and 8 additional R Greenleaf as populated along the way from the 11 for a combined total today of 34 per NMRLD with these reported sales. If the numbers were similar, in April '22 there were 11 R Greenleaf and 14 or fewer Everest, thus somewhere in the combined 25 range then? I do not have the numbers for Everest prior to acquisition nor growth pattern.

No matter, the crunch, is apparent. The question becomes what they plan to do to manage it with revised guidance appearing required for we, the public. They addressed the unlimited licenses in a letter to the Govenor and there does seem to be some attrition as to storefronts taking place in the NM total market. Sales declines reduced basket sizes and reduced number of customer visits in a weaker economy with lower prices are also present. Consolidation isn't always pretty. The expression, "Everyone would be doing it." comes to mind in the form of current sarcasm. Yes, many have tried --and we are viewing the ugly period that there will be fewer left. Between the black market and the lack of helpful government policy, it is going to stay ugly for a while imo.

[damAcon1]

Sadly, here is when I went negative...add in the lack of metrics on their past earnings calls, them changing PR companies and skirting around answering my inquiry has caused me to lose faith in this company being any different than the other MSOs out there...if anything they are growing into being just another MSO out there. I think as time goes on, and the market cap continues to dwarf their annual revenue, I too could see them taking the company private and screwing over any shareholder with an average above the buyout price. This move to being private alleviates the SEC reporting need (imagine how many times they wouldn't have had to tell us who has decided to move one) while at the same time opens the door to various avenues that the other private cannabis companies use to circumvent 280E tax code.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172847095

While I still want to justify my previous comment about liking the company "operating and proving themselves in the foxhole"...as a long term success story for when the industry normalizes...I truly question when "normalization" will ever, if ever, happen. Obviously the longer it takes the less appealing SHWZ looks in comparison to the other MSOs operating in markets where the race to the bottom is delayed due to state protection/limited competition. and/or growth into markets chasing the medical to rec flip.

There has obviously been a disconnect with the industry via social media echo chamber as compared to reality. I have spent a lot of my time trying to learn the other side....and unfortunately, in doing so, it hasn't strengthen my long term outlook for the existing industry. The only thing that I continue to fail at is the timeline of events; today, tomorrow, 5, 10, 20 years from now....and believe that there is still wiggle room within the current operators (and possible/potential catalysts, who knows) until that timeline becomes clearer.

I know my thoughts around Schedule III are in the minority, but with the excitement around removal of 280E...I honestly see it as a rug pull for the industry we know of today. The government appears to be focusing on increased research. Focused on cannabis "medicines" via FDA approval and pharma....and I think it will be a cold day in hell before the government/medical community ever accepts 'combustibles' as a successful form of treatment. Now the runway could be 20 years long...and I don't think one could ever remove the form of smoking from cannabis consumption...but what we have as a comparison is the tobacco industry and their (combustible) trajectory. Technically, the government could force smokables back to the illicit market by cracking down on legal products/operators. Another growing concern of mine is the psychoactive hemp derivative, legal, NATIONAL, direct to consumer market...the industry could continue to backslide even if most of the top-players are chasing growth via protection.

Call me Pessimistic-Pete. I will try to limit any additional negative rants...while hoping for best to (at least) breakeven than watch from the sidelines.

Some other, probably stupid attempts at prediction....Ohio (just barely) passes rec via ballot today eventually forcing the hand of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will show that there is a way that the government could oversee this whole process by forcing state run testing and retail. Florida will somehow manage to fail to pass adult use, whether it be shot down and never coming to vote...or coming to vote but not getting the 60% necessary to pass.