Replies to post #249614 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Dew- Thanks for the post on TERN's weight loss oral drug. The new oral weight loss drug candidates are many. Here is a summary of what I've been following:

 
 Owner	Drug	        MOA		 Comments 
 				 
 GSBR	GSBR-1290	GLP1		Significant weight loss in 28 day Phase 1 (up to 4.9%) 
 VKTX	VK2735		GLP1/GIP	In phase 1- peptide 
 LLY	orforglipron 	GLP1		In phase 3- No comment at last CC 
 PFE	PF-06882961 	GLP1		Small Molecule 
 NVO	Rybelssus	GLP1		Semaglutide- approved for Diabetes only but used off label 
 AMGN	Not Named	Undisclosed	Probably oral version of AMG 133 which activates GLP1 but inhibits GIP 
 Kallyope K757&K833     Hormone		New oral nutrient receptor agonists that stimulate the secretion of multiple appetite-suppressing satiety hormones 
 TERN	TERN-601	GLP1		Management discussing this drug in combination- not competitive standalone? 
 PFE	lotiglipron 	GLP1            Discontinued due to elevated liver enzymes

If I've missed an oral weight loss drug candidate, please reply to this post.

None of these drugs will match the injectables for amount of weight loss. However oral convenience is important and the most impressive oral drug so far has been Structure Therapeutics' GSBR-1290. The company (GSBR) basically has gone to a market cap of $3 Billion based on their phase 1 results. It's a high dose GLP1 small molecule GLP1 that seems to have very good tolerability. The question is what is the long term tolerability of this drug and whether it will plateau earlier than say a dual agonist. Viking's VK2809 should read out a phase1 study in 1st q 2024. Yes, VK2735 as a larger molecule dual agonist peptide will have a fasting component (not troubling IMO) but the addition of the second agonist (GIP) is postulated by VKTX management to improve tolerability and possibly plateau higher. I'm not expecting VK2809 results in 1st Q of 2024 to match GSBR results. Phase 1 studies really shouldn't be used to judge efficacy but the reality is they are today. In any event, I see GSBR and VKTX as having the proverbial "best in class hopeful" designation in this massive market opportunity. The other drugs on the above list may be commercial successes as well as the market is large but at this point, my money is on Viking. (see market cap of VKTX vs GSBR and consider all drugs in trials- e.g. risk/reward)

As a final comment, I still see the injectables as capturing the majority of the weight loss market with tolerable oral drugs capturing significant sales mostly in a lucrative long term maintenance roll.