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reallybadtrader

02/22/07 3:53 PM

#4621 RE: siriusadult #4620

Sirius I dont believe a broker/dealer can establish a naked short position (which with a significant increase, lands you on Reg Sho). That would be done on the private equity side. Someone might need to correct me on that but I dont think B/D's can do that.

Also, risk reward. Not there. If I control a significant amount of money and really feel like this company is going under, I wait until volume dries up, run the price up, wait until the buyers fill in, then short the crap out of it and watch all the panic selling. Not really legal by the way, but it happens. Its called a pump and dump and it does not happen as much as people think it does.

If you had a million share short position, how would you even begin to cover? It would take you several days at least and you would of run the stock up a point. In my opinion it is just not liquid enough to have a huge short position in. By the time you could cover, your profits would be out the window. A short is looking for 50% return here, no way its gonna happen.

I dont have an answer for Reg Sho except for the fact that it does not take a whole lot to make it. It might be a specialist shorting due to lack of shares to sell.

I think the stock is where it is because its there is no reason for it to move right now and traders are cutting bait, heck I unloaded half my position on any strength we had last week. I am going to regret it at some point but it was dead money that I could be trading in something else. The fact is there was rumors of pending deals and pr's, thats all we had. Thats all we still have. An analyst cant seriously look at this and say, you know what we need to a 10% stake in this company they are going to make us money. There are however groups that will say, lets take a flier on this and buy a 100m shares and see what happens this year, worst case we will take a tax loss at end of year, they are only risking 300k.

You have no idea how much I hope I am wrong but I dont see a reason the stock goes up in the first quarter. I think it does after though. The only way it does is if the short or seller alluded too earlier, really did have a monster order and finshes soon, the stock will drift up some naturally.