Replies to post #249244 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

You're acting like models shouldn't be used because they could end up being wrong because one didn't accurately predict a large potential disruptive change to a given industry over a short-time frame.

No, complex (ie lots of knobs) models shouldn’t be used because they are, best case, useless, worst case they are self confirmatory Rorschach Tests. Methods to fool yourself. Examples abound, but I think almost everyone has to experience fooling themselves with this methodology at least once or twice - build big model, get burned, reverse engineer why it didn’t work correctly, notice 20 random things you picked that were highly uncertain but for prior-belief or motivation reasons…