Replies to post #768618 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Guido2]

I can't say I'd rather listen to a snake-oil salesman than KT. There's no difference.

[The Man With No Name]

How about I'm going to start saying there's zero percent probability that JPS survive.

That's cool. I think JPS holders ***yawn***

Or ever get a dividend, or ever reach par?

Zero percent is most likely true. I'd say 99%

And so what?

[LuLeVan]

"How about I'm going to start saying there's zero percent probability that JPS survive. Or ever get a dividend, or ever reach par?"

That would be perfectly fine with me. I always listen with interest when others express an opinion - even if it doesn't agree with mine. Because when there is a difference of opinion, it is particularly important to carefully evaluate all the arguments presented and to critically question my prior knowledge. Whether the opinion presented remains relevant to me depends on how logical, consistent and free of contradiction the arguments presented are.

However, this "strategy" works only in the rare cases where valid arguments are presented at all. ;-)

[kthomp19]

He assigns it a zero percent probability. That's not trying to influence at all, Eh?

That's right, it is not an attempt to influence anyone. You are the one who keeps speculating on why different posters post, which by the way is a violation of this site's TOS.

I couldn't care less what anyone else chooses to buy or sell, it doesn't affect me at all. Though I am glad that the junior pref prices are low right now so I can continue to accumulate.

How about I'm going to start saying there's zero percent probability that JPS survive. Or ever get a dividend, or ever reach par? I'll just state that as fact, like KT does.

I think there is about a 75% chance that Treasury converts the seniors to commons. That is my opinion and I never presented it as a fact. You are just as free to disagree with my opinions as I am to express them.

I have also listed out the evidence and reasoning behind my estimate, which is more than I can say about those who claim a senior-to-common conversion is impossible.

We are not pushing bankruptcy fallacies, restructure fallacies (it's been going on for 15 years,!) Cram down fallacies.

And I'm not "pushing" anything either. You are confusing what I want to happen with what I think will happen. Only the latter guides my investment decisions.

I would much rather have Treasury write off the seniors than convert them to common, because that would mean more money in my pocket. But in light of all the evidence I can't see it as being likely.

by using partial quotes, old books by old FHFA heads, AIG case you see as similarities from long ago

That's a hell of a lot more than you have provided. What precedent, evidence, and/or reasoning do you have for thinking that Treasury will write off the seniors? Especially when all the available evidence points the opposite direction?

but stop the pushing down the throat of others that just because you have conviction about a particular outcome, does not mean at all that something different or far different can happen

The exact same thing applies to people who are pushing a senior pref writedown outcome. Until you acknowledge that you are just being biased.

In other words, quit spoon feeding those who don't want your BS THEORY'S

Just use the ignore list then. You are not obligated to respond to any given post.