Replies to post #20643 on Medicine Man Technologies Inc (SHWZ)

[In Plain Sight]

Well, the rapid expansion of storefronts in NM had a deleterious effect on all operators would be my guess.

While bemoaning what is reality, recall they have a nice percentage of the existing market share. It should get larger with some of the competitors falling away thus allowing greater price stability. Did anyone think that would be without cost? Introductory price reductions by newbies? Discounted sales? The fact they have a full vertical with their own cpg is the saving grace. Look at the hiring in support of that. Expansion, contraction, and what did the team do in the supermarket biz? They won by acceptable cannibalization between stores and low margins which enjoyed the greater market share % of the TAM.

Canna has the potential for much greater margins with a couple of factors stopping that: Tax treatment (mostly done w/ 280E removal) and a moderate pace of expansion vs. the current breakneck speed. Q: How many storefronts have been allocated in NM and have yet to be built out? A: A bunch.

We have both at present as meaningful distractors to a $GTBIF model of slow expansion and hence showing a profit where everyone else isn't. I'm all for the latter (rapid expansion), as build out the Super Regional and take an aggressive position in another State if the right opportunity presents so long as debt can be serviced and there isn't a crazy amount of dilution. CO is a different animal in that organic build out is not always as easy as building one's spots due to city/county red tape and all the fun (time/cost) they add to opening a "new" dispensary. Organic growth there is hit and miss. NM is the wild west in comparison. Enjoy the bronco busting or sore hind quarters as a result.

Someone on X pointed out that $GTBIF purchased some of a competitors' debt, that being $CNTMF. Now, $GTBIF has been very restrained building out in FL, while the $0.12 priced $CNTMF hasn't. Imho, $CNTMF won't be bought out because of their share structure which sits at over 350MM shares FD (similar to $MRMD's which is also share count ridiculous). Not until they do a reverso or accept such. If $SHWZ keeps their current state under control, I can foresee a much greater chance of being acquired with an actual premium to what the insiders initially paid or when acquired, accepted. Not tomorrow, but the wheels of progress are turning, nonetheless. We may have what is helpful govt movement this year. And that should make us all happy as canna investors.