Value, definitely not core inflation,
which came in at 4.8% in June vs around 5.9% for June 2022. The labor market is the huge problem for the Fed and the economy right now. The jobs market remains hot, and wages actually went up more than expected in the last report. The fed vows to keep raising rates until core inflation is down to 2%, not CPI. I don't see core coming down to even 3% till 2025.
In the meantime, the consumer is slowly getting tapped out, and as of yesterday, bloomberg said the consumer savings are around $500B vs over $2T a couple years ago. Not to mention the $500B in student debt consumers now have to pay back. So if in fact the fed stays around 5.5% or so for all of 2024, then I don't see how both the consumer and corporations, paying higher interest for all funds borrowed, won't mean a slowing economy. Many analysts on both Bloomberg and CNBC are predicting corporate profits to make a comeback yoy in the second half and into 2024. I don't see how,
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