Easy decision on a hidden markets path. Next week answers all questions. We are due for a reenergized spike in inflation again based on past experiences. This assumes disinflation for the last 40 years is completely dead going forward. The street repeatedly sees a job market falling back down despite every single indicator to the contrary. Wages are BELOW inflation targets and I expect they will exceed inflation targets going forward. JOLT proved just how tight the labor market is with over 10 million jobs begging to be had. The one week rise in unemployment was an anomaly yet convinces the street we are slowing down and so is inflation. At best we should experience Stagflation which is the worse scenario for profits. Momentum indicator suggests the next target on ESM23 (SP mini) is 4331.50 only a few points below that today. CPI/PPI had better be tame or we might have witnessed a multi-decade top.
Just as trumps favorability rating from the GOP is 77% it defies logic and common sense. Both the market and political arena is at an emotional disconnect to reality.
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