ISM Non-manu business activity index dropped to lowest since May '20. Worse than any other month in 2019 and about the same as the first half of '08. No wonder oil market didn't care about Saudis. https://t.co/62Q0hO91Mcpic.twitter.com/vvzWulN9CD
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 6, 2023
Overshadowing last Friday's questionable payroll #, today's ISM along w/oil market continue string of recession data. Not simply fears, ongoing and continuing confirmation. Non-manu PMI in May just barely more than Dec low, only no blizzard to blame.https://t.co/62Q0hO91Mcpic.twitter.com/A0sOVNbQFa
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 6, 2023
Even after Saudi promised cut, WTI remains contango in the front end and flat over first few contracts. Does that actually mean anything for beyond quirks in the commodity markets? Yep. Over last decade, there's definitely a correlation. https://t.co/62Q0hO91Mcpic.twitter.com/uxaio1glI8
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 6, 2023
Doesn't matter what oil producers do with supply, recessionary demand conditions keep pushing oil prices lower. They'll have to keep cutting back supplies but scheme has falling marginal utility. Today's cut didn't last more than a few hours.https://t.co/62Q0hO91Mcpic.twitter.com/CUCqcu4q9n
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 6, 2023
Not just "soft" PMI data, several "hard" datapoints like US factory orders confirm substantial downturn in sales, more problems still to come. As producers run down previous sales, with fewer new orders coming in they're going to run out of work leaving them w/too many workers. pic.twitter.com/9dWRstIuCm
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 6, 2023