Bigworld, With the Nasdaq, the RSI is currently ~ 74, so well into overbought territory. But a high RSI can continue for some time when the underlying index or stock is on a roll. The Nasdaq (13,288) has made it through (for now) the key resistance from the Aug '22 high (13,128).
The S+P 500 is not as far along, and is closing in on key resistance ~ 4300 (Aug '22 high was 4305). RSI is 66-67. I'm thinking it might get through that and move up to 4400, then pull back to re-test 4300 (which would then be support).
But a lot will depend upon next week's Fed meeting, and 'Grumpy Jerome's' guidance could bring on a pullback / consolidation. Once past that though, the markets might be able to do some 'open field running' over the summer, and make up some lost ground.. A lot of unknowns though, so will have to stay flexible if trading.
The Fed's unofficial 'mouthpiece' at the WSJ (Nick Timiraos) is indicating that the Fed will pause next week, and give guidance that more % rises are possible later depending upon the incoming data.
Fwiw, my current strategy with the 20% stock allocation is to try to hold tight with the 15% Core, but possibly take profits on the 5% Flex at some point, or even on 10% if the market zooms unsustainably. Probably best not to get too clever though. Nice to see some profits building up (for a change), so may want to grab them at some point if it's obvious a pullback is near (RSI on S+P 500 at 75. 80, etc).
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