It's not about trust, the JPS holders can simply not accept the conversion if its unfavorable. This is the only way JPS holders would be ok voluntarily accepting a conversion (which requires 2/3 of each series to agree). Or UST can go ahead and proceed w/o JPS holders and leave us in the capital structure as senior but Calabria claimed that was not acceptable to UST as they were not on board with that.
The common cramdown scenario will only be possible if the NWS and SPS Liquidation preference is not voided or a derivative action is not successful. At this point the market expectation is that the separation of powers suits and the derivative suits will not be successful. Makes sense for a 44 cents stock that could be worth 20 to 30 times more if shareholders prevail and the conversion remedy is not selected in the separation of powers suits.
Perhaps Glenn is right about the common cramdown but you can make your own judgement on his track record to date.
Next up is the Rop Cert decision as familymang has highlighted in his calendar. We should know a lot more by the end of the year.
JPS seems to have a much better risk/return at current prices but it is not to say that both common and JPS will eventually be treated fairly. I got to believe that Ackman will step back in on behalf of common at some point with new litigation on a MQD type of lawsuit if the JB Admin tries to execute a cramdown via Admin Action
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