Replies to post #247232 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

That’s an astute take on the oncology market, IMO. ‘Bladerunner’, who invests in oncology companies only, presumably disagrees.

[iwfal]

Valley of death to Precision Drugs:

Precision medicine is killing oncology as a viable investment because it requires new drugs to target smaller and smaller niches of already rare subsets of tumors. It's great for patients but the types of tumor-agnostic agents that make enough money to justify development costs are going to be few and far between.

I’d suggest it’s essentially all of drugs, not just oncologist drugs. See thread I did below, with a rebuttal at the end that I still need to think through.

Delayed response to figure out how to communicate diff of opinion:

Suggest the problem is there is a Valley of Death btwn where we are now (ethnic subgroups, v poor GRS) and full GRS for both risk and treatment. 1/n

— Clark H (@Clarksterh) May 19, 2023

Moving through this valley will require a lot more investment in understanding etiology (eg polygenic risk scores). And this will, in turn, require acknowledging things people very much do NOT want to acknowledge (eg see whole ‘debate’ on eGFR).

[Mufaso]

rfj1862 - ARAV- FWIW I looked at Aravive and decided to invest yesterday after you suggested it was worth a look . I found this KOL webcast from May 24th to be compelling not only for the content but also for the pure enthusiasm projected by the KOL's presenting:

https://ir.aravive.com/events/event-details/key-opinion-leader-kol-virtual-event-highlighting-batiraxcept-potential

Also- here is an updated poster to the abstract link you posted that has a few more graphics and an updated conclusion (note the updated qualifier on clinical activity). I highlighted several things that increased my confidence that batiraxcept is viable drug that will be commercially successful.

https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/asco-2023/asco-2023-kidney-cancer/144813-asco-2023-phase-2-study-of-batiraxcept-as-monotherapy-in-combination-with-cabozantinib-and-in-combination-with-cabozantinib-and-nivolumab-in-patients-with-advanced-clear-cell-renal-cell-carci


This phase II trial (NCT04300140) tested batiraxcept at a dose of 15 mg/kg every 2 weeks in 3 distinct cohorts:

Cohort 1: Batiraxcept monotherapy in patients with relapsing disease and no curative options (n=10)
Cohort 2: Batiraxcept plus cabozantinib 60 mg daily in patients with at least 1 prior therapy (n=25)
Cohort 3: Batiraxcept plus cabozantinib 40 mg daily and nivolumab 240 q2w or 480 mg q4w in the 1st line setting (n=11)

An ORR, defined as either a complete or partial response, was observed in none of the patients in Cohort 1, compared to 36% and 55% of patients in Cohorts 2 and 3, respectively. One patient (10%) in Cohort 1 had stable disease. The median PFS was 1.8, 7.2, and 7.6 months, respectively.

Dr. Beckermann concluded that batiraxcept monotherapy is well-tolerated but has limited clinical activity in heavily pre-treated patients with relapsing disease and no other curative options. Batiraxcept-based combinations demonstrated efficacy and tolerability in both treatment-naïve patients and those with at least 1 prior therapy. Given the encouraging safety and efficacy signals, batiraxcept + cabozantinib will be further studied in a phase 3 trial of ccRCC patients in the ≥2nd line setting, whose disease has progressed on prior immunotherapy and VEGF-TKI treatment. Exploratory analysis for a baseline serum soluble AXL/GAS6 ratio biomarker was found to predict clinical activity in the phase 1b study evaluating batiraxcept + cabozantinib in patients who had failed 1st line therapies; a similar analysis using this biomarker is ongoing for this patient population.

[Mufaso]

rfj1862 - The phase 3 readout on ARAV's Batiraxcept is imminent. I listened to the Aravive fireside chat and it was very technical with lots of time spent on the drugs MOA and market opportunity. The CEO appeared to be very open and transparent.

Here is the link and it will be available till July 24:

https://ir.aravive.com/events/event-details/william-blairs-innovator-series-transitioning-biotech-breakthroughs-commercial

There is a large short position on this stock which is 6.5 million shares which has increased by 1.4 million shares from the prior month to about 11 % of shares outstanding. Since insiders hold 50% and institutions hold 22%, the short position is 122% of the float!!

As you have said, this stock is either going to rocket in one direction or the other. Any current thoughts on the stock in light of the recent chat or increased short position from you or anyone else? FWIW, I decide to buy a bit more and wait out the P3 results.