Replies to post #246941 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Judging from the interest on twitter- I expect the immediate reaction for VKTX will be amplified in both directions. If the 12-week results for VK2809 are unexpectedly bad, maybe the stock goes to single digits on the PPS for a short time but I think it recovers and ends up in the mid teens.

My reasoning on the downside is the NASH drug given its current stage in the approval process is probably worth about 1 Billion in Market cap. I'm guessing the 400 mill in cash the company has, plus the buzz around the weight loss market for VK2735 is worth another Billion. (I attribute another 200 mill to the rest of the pipeline (e.g. X-ALD, others not disclosed).

If the drug performs well on liver fat reduction defined as measurably better than Madrigal's resmetirom, OR equal to resmetirom with a better safety profile, then 30's are possible given the large short position. This may not hold given the remaining questions to answer on this drug of an extended nature related to Fibrosis and continued efficacy.

[jbog]

rfj1862

Being that VK2735 was solely responsible for the recent upside I wouldn't expect the downside to be as drastic. It'll drop, but 2735 isn't floating this ship.

good luck