Replies to post #246713 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Barron's did an OK job on covering the weight loss market today. Here is a link that may be behind a paywall:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/weight-loss-drugs-eli-lilly-mounjaro-novo-nordisk-ozempic-stock-buy-c5d4418c?refsec=biotech-and-pharma&mod=topics_biotech-and-pharma

Here are some interesting snips/quotes from the article:

Sales estimates for currently or about to be approved drugs:



Quote on who has something coming:

Pfizer (PFE) says it has a pill under development that works similarly to tirzepatide and semaglutide, while Amgen AMGN 0.70% (AMGN) is testing a weight-loss drug that uses a different mechanism. Lilly also has a number of other weight-loss drugs in its pipeline, including a pill called orforglipron, which could launch in 2027; SVB Securities analyst David Risinger expects it could reach $9.9 billion in sales in 2030.

Note- I believe the Pfizer drug referenced above is orforglipron- a GLP-1 drug going to Phase 3 next year.


Quote On Market Size:

Just how big could the overall market be?
At an investment conference early this year, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that his company expects the combined obesity and Type 2 diabetes market for drugs in this category to hit $90 billion globally by 2030. That kind of estimate is supported by the extremely widespread nature of the two conditions: According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 41.9% of American adults are obese, and about 1 in 10 have diabetes.

And because these medicines aren’t curative, patients will probably need to take them for a long time, expanding the drugs’ earnings potential. For example, analyst expectations for peak sales of Mounjaro—in both its diabetes and obesity formulations—include a heady $100 billion a year (Geoff Meacham of BofA Securities) and a more modest, but still impressive, $40 billion (Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari). For context: Even the smaller of those figures is nearly twice peak sales of the best-selling therapeutic in history, AbbVie ABBV -1.43%’s (ABBV) Humira.

The author concludes by saying:

...early data suggesting that Lilly’s tirzepatide is a more effective weight-loss agent than Novo’s Ozempic (a head-to-head trial in the works), and Lilly looks to be a winning bet on the obesity-drug boom.