Replies to post #17020 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

Petz, I tend to avoid complex answers in preference to simple ones. This has served the advancement of science well, and I like it. So I have to ask, what is wrong with this -

1. AMD wants to keep higher ASPs on AMD64 in the timeframe we are discussing (they do not want to pollute it with the low end);

2. By keeping both 64-bit and 32-bit socket 754, AMD keeps the cost of the platform cheaper (fewer SKUs, more volume).

Remember also that S754 is inherently cheaper than current socket mobos because the lack of northbridge (and associated traces for the extra hop) means the board can be made with less layers. The whole thing makes a cheaper and better 32-bit platform.

[dougSF30]

Petz, I don't know. Some folks out there are pretty confident that Prescott (or its successor) is fully AMD64 compatible.

Doug

[kpf]

Petz

I dont think Paris is an anticipation of Intels next step.

I would tend to an explanation following a "design for manufacturability" approach which allows to use dies with defects in the 64-bit registers as well.

On your post on SI about valuation of AMD as if it would have to pay taxes next year:
But when AMD is profitable they start have to start counting "diluted shares" differently
Could you elaborate on this please?

Deferred fiscal losses are well above 1 Billion USD today.
And there will be some taxes payable as soon as AMD is profitable (in some 10-15 percent range depending on in which tax legislative region profits are shown). Most probably there will be useable fiscal losses left over for some quarters in 2005.
In some two months time the earning forecasts will show 2005 for "next year". Valuation is done for future earnings, so
the taxation issue will likely be priced in gradually during the next two years.

As soon as AMD disclosed their 300mm plan and Capex for next year the street will have a much better visibility for Cash-Flow during the next two years, which is probably more important for the valuation of the common than fiscal earnings.

K.

[KeithDust2000]

Petz, Comments? Just like your interpretation of that interview with the SUN guy, you´re just WAY off here. While it´s up to INTEL to announce the specifics of their 64bit plans, I´d advise you to leave this path and return to more realistic scenarios for further speculation.