Derfie rarely tries to catch a falling knife is how.
I typically look to trade in the meaty middle. I'm happy with a 30% gain on my stocks and will happily sell off enough to cover my cost to buy and keep the rest.
I also prefer a 15% stop loss and thus I only have to be right half as often.
My motto is greed kills.
As for the "Big Boys" having a better grip or manipulating, I'd say stay away from derivative products that can be easily manipulated, and as for that better grip.....that's what creates the warning signs when charting that I look for. I'm not as sure these big boys manipulate as they do get early information helping them to cheat the game a bit. If you're a gambler who knows the QB in the upcoming game has a bad shoulder and bet accordingly, that's not manipulation, it's inside info. In the past, I have talked with NYers on Wall Street who have known things before I could. However, again, if you watch trading volume and trends, you can be second in line to learn things before the masses notice it.
As to your last question, I have always said knowing when to sell is much more difficult than knowing when to buy.....so....set a mental price target and stick to it, then quit watching the stock in case it goes on a massive run after.....or as mentioned earlier, sell your cost basis and keep the rest.
Lastly, avoiding a recession?? Tough one. Either ride through it if you've got time (you don't),
or put a gas and oil tank in your backyard. Grow vegetables. Butcher your own beef. Raise chickens. Put up a big fence.
Too lengthy of an answer?
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