“Inflation has now been joined by financial stability concerns as threats to sustained growth,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. “These particular pre-recessionary conditions are not unusual, as bank failures often follow monetary tightening – but this may well be the catalyst for the modest recession we’ve been expecting since April 2022.”
Duncan continued: “While housing writ large has responded to the Fed’s monetary tightening in a relatively predictable fashion, the rapid uptick in home sales in response to modest rate declines earlier this year corroborates our long-standing expectation that the housing sector will help moderate any future recession due to the significant pent-up demand.”
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