The Trump loss is explainable. Biden couldn't get 60 people to hear him speak 3 weeks before the election in his home state, delaware, where I live, while Trump was getting 35 to 56 thousand in next door pennsylvania, so the elections were so massively rigged. I knew they were crooked but did not count on their new weapon, simply refusing to report finally vote totals for 3 weeks until they have printed enough fake ballots, etc...
I have been wrong, you are correct in prior perceived breakouts to the upside, but the fundamentals now appear materially different. Indeed, I have lost a great deal of money in my calls on the metals the past couple years. I had lost similarly on U.S. steel...dropping 20 grand here, 25 grand there, 15 more here, until I was right on that call and within a month made 1.85 million.....I generally tend to pick up a bet that goes bad very quickly. I am a fast seller. So we shall see if the 3rd time is the charm for me with precious metals. The downside for me is a perhaps half of my current winnings, since I went long less than 2 weeks ago, which is almost 200 grand. Conceivably I could give that back, but the upside is many millions in winnings. I like the risk reward. Let's roll the tape forward and see.. When I hit, I hit large. Thousands of trades each year, 4 out of 5 wrong....but when I am right I hit large, last year netting over 1 million. My accountant is amazed each year. That is what they say, btw....a great trader should have many small losses, and just a few massive winners. Jesse Livermore said this, by the way, he also wrote that he found that with his great trades, "they showed me a profit almost immediately." That is what I have found. My great trades I am up almost from day one....so far, this is the case with this new effort in precious metals...we shall see. Livermore's book is a classic I highly recommend.
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