Replies to post #102979 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[gilead23]

I don’t think it’s fair to say they were “all” predicting 300 dollar oil. I heard a few outlandish numbers like that, but the ones I saw were saying it was a possibility if XYZ happen.

The headline for something like “I think oil could go to $300 if Russian output falls, and China reopens, and and and”

Is boiled down to

“Analyst predicts $300 oil”

But agree with the humility comment.

[researcher59]

SD -.65 to 15.16, could have a lot further to fall .... they are roughly 70% NG and NGL revenues, 30% oil, depending on relative prices. As of October they have just 20% of their NG production hedged through March and nothing further out .... it will be interesting to see their latest hedge position when they report Q4 results in March. Hopefully they put on more hedges, otherwise they'll be getting very low prices for Q2 and beyond.

SBOW, by comparison, is 80% hedged for all of 2023 with some hedges already contracted for 2024.

[researcher59]

Back in early September I suggested we could have a NatGas glut by March in the case of a mild winter ..... the extended Freeport outage has made matters even worse.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169889533&txt2find=glut

[jtomm]

Not meant as a personal attack and not meant literally. I was talking about the "expert" talking heads in the media, not anyone on our little board. (On the SD board, I too, suggested that you never know, prices could come way down)

[larrybaz]

jtomm, I get humbled by the market on a regular basis. And that's actually a good thing, because when you get complacent and think you're some type of all-knowing guru, that's when you get hammered in a big way.