Watch the trends and not the momentary ticks. When trends change, the stock ultimate direction changes with it.
Being optomistic is one thing. To ignore and dismiss all that's relevant , exaggerating expectations, counting on assumptions is as if one is driving with blinders on having no peripheral vision .
Check the record of those who exaggerate, assume, and count on what they would like to see instead of what is known and rationally judged to happen.
Only Trends, unbiased research, and the market tells the story.