Well, MS and JPM have PTs of $53 and $54 so I guess they also think it's fully valued now. I wish I knew if they project a step-down in the royalty rate in 2024 and 2027 and for what products. The lack of clarity about this is the biggest issue for me. Does Halo management know but they are not allowed to disclose it? Have the co-formulation patents not been issued yet so they don't know yet? At some point, they are going to have to tell us. I suspect most analysts expect a step-down for at least some products and the stock will go higher if it turns out there is no step-down, especially if there is no step-down in the royalty rate for Darzalex Faspro. Concentration risk is slowly coming down and we now have 6 Enhanze products in phase 3 trials. If the royalty rate remains at 4% for most products, I would think the stock will keep going up.
The stock made a new closing high today. Volume was pretty low and there wasn't much option activity, though. We are getting close to the conversion price of the convertible notes ($56.02). Do you think this will affect the stock price in any way?
"The Convertible Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company and will accrue interest payable semi-annually in arrears at an annual rate of 1.00%. The Convertible Notes have an initial conversion rate of 17.8517 shares of the Company's common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes (which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $56.02 per share of the Company's common stock, representing an initial conversion premium of approximately 30% above the closing price of $43.09 per share of the Company's common stock on August 15, 2022)."
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