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brooklyn137

11/03/22 11:25 AM

#333 RE: patience_in_waiting #332

Moderately heavily in ELGL, none in BFNH. A portion of my money goes into high risk high reward stocks. So, I'm safe as far as a full disaster is concerned. If they all go to zero I'm okay.

I look at these as risk reward plays, like a poker bet. I don't play poker but I understand the principals. Then I apply a kind of Bayesian analysis to it. (How likely is this fact to be true if the stock is going to go down, how likely is it if the stock is going to go up.) The fact that the big guys are still there, LaVoilette, etc., makes it more likely that this will succeed.

So if you figure there is a 50% chance of success and a ten bagger or more if it succeeds, then it's a no brainer. One final thing, it's a good idea to have a few of these. If you have three noncorrelated 50% bets, your chance of all of them going down the tubes is about 12.5%. So, again, pretty good risk reward.

That's my take anyway.

Bigboy36

11/03/22 12:42 PM

#334 RE: patience_in_waiting #332

I’m mildly / moderately invested in ELGL. No BFNH. I went balls deep on PRED (still am) so praying l can get some type of return here.

Yes, yes, I’ve learnt my lesson now about portfolio management.