Replies to post #244224 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

RSV

GSK slides from ACIP presentation today

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-10-19-20/02-RSV-Adults-Rizkalla-508.pdf

Link to ACIP working group presentation

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-10-19-20/04-RSV-Adults-Melgar-508.pdf

[dewophile]

The (impressive) safety profile of the RSV vaccine is shown on slides 12-13

vaccine tolerability better than GSK (as expected)
efficacy is lower however (10% or so )
Pfizer did maintain efficacy in over 70yo
no data on duration yet which might swing in GSK's favor given adjuvenation

1 case GBS in GSK database, 2 cases in PFE study

[dewophile]

PFE slides from ACIP presentation

https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/files/doc_downloads/2022/10/IDWeek22/Pfizer_RSVpreF_RENOIR_ACIP_2022-10-20_final_to_CDC.pdf

I find it odd that PFE didn't look at frailty. GSK didn't have numbers to show a benefit in frail, but in prefrail they maintained efficacy
ACIP may prioritize GSK for these patients IMO (nursing homes will basically carry GSK)
The lower bound of the CI also was <20% for pts w comorbidity in the PFE study so another population where regulators and ACIP may lean to GSK

PS: I own more GSK than PFE but am long both

edit: I didn't listen to the acip presentations, and obviously these are only interim data and things like duration (even within one RSV season) remain important open questions. however the more I look at the data now the more I think GSK will win the majority of this market. JMO

[DewDiligence]

Re: COVID-vaccine pricing in the commercial market

Starting in 1Q23—or whenever supplies under existing contracts government run out—PFE will begin selling its COVID vaccine in the US commercial market with a list price of $110-130 per single-use vial, which is about 4x the price per dose PFE realized from doses sold to the US and EU under government contracts. There will be some rebating/discounting of the commercial list price but this is nevertheless a big commercial opportunity, even with greatly reduced volume compared to the early days of the pandemic.

The list price for ex-US commercial sales has yet to be determined.

Source: Today’s PFE CC.