IMO the pivot will come when like Piepenburg said in his article..."When the pain, politics, and panics have reached levels the U.S. and global economy and markets haven't seen since the FDR era, Powell will throw in the towel and pivot."
In other words it's going to have to get a lot worse than where we currently are in this cycle. I believe it's going to take more events like what we saw happen in the U.K. with them having to come in and prop up their bond market The Banksters are going to have to be more worried about some sort of systemic collapse than they are about bringing inflation down. If they pivot too soon then inflation will not be contained and it will take off again higher, but if they continue on this current tightening path they risk crashing the System. IMO they'll HAVE to pivot to prevent that event from happening. Powell and his minions know that too.
The market is expecting them to go another 100 bps or so higher, so that would put rates around 4% IF they can take it that high, but remember they're also going to increase the QT, so that's added tightening. I definitely think they'll have a lot more problems begin to show up before year end. Whether they can put out those fires before they have to pivot is anyone's guess. I'm thinking the pivot may come sometime in Q1 of next year, ONLY if they can contain any major blow-ups before that time. We'll see.
Gold and silver will scream higher when the pivot comes and they have to come in with more QE. We break through the old price highs and IMO the miners finally break out in a very big way, as it will be clear as day PM prices are going to new higher levels.
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