Agree that a cold winter will be needed to support ngas prices. Freeport LNG coming back online Oct. That will boost exports by 20% from that point on. We are already at bottom of 5 year storage levels, even with Freeport offline for the last few months.
Ngas prices have definitely been elevated all year, moving from $4/mcf in 1/22 to a peak of $10 this summer and now at 6.89.
I don't buy that headline. Europe fills up ahead of schedule.
They are comparing historic storage levels in Europe but 90% storage isn't going to help Germany when their ongoing inflows have dramatically declined. 90% was enough to get them thru the winter in previous years when Russia was supplying 40% of their ngas. With only 60% of incoming ngas continuing on a daily basis all winter, that 90% storage figure doesn't hold water or ngas. They are going to get incremental supplies from other countries but nothing compared to what they would have received from Russia. I still think there will be a big crisis in Europe this winter and next. It will take that long to build up LNG import facilities and improve pipelines between countries in Europe.
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