NorCal: good summary
You made a lot of good points and I agree. I have not used the phrase “gating factor” but that does describe the situation. Everything hinges on this demo run and that cannot happen without the kiln. They cannot announce that they plan to produce REEs until they demonstrate that they can extract and refine them. I may be proven wrong, but I really doubt Mark is going to this conference (and buying lunch for everyone) just to announce we are evaluating the possibility of adding REEs. People are going to say (and rightly so) “you and Scott did a video in May in which you said that. Have you made ANY progress since then?” He is not going to announce we are adding REEs at the conference because that is not the appropriate venue for publishing material info. That announcement has to come before the conference. A lot needs to happen in the next 6 weeks and none of it will happen without a kiln. I think your time estimates are spot on: a 2-3 week demo run followed by 2-3 weeks of number crunching and data evaluation. There is one thing that might be in our favor. Scott is very, very good at this stuff. He can probably predict quite accurately what % recovery and % purity will be. A lot of the number crunching might be done. The purpose of the demo plant is to prove his predictions were correct.
The PR that we are adding REEs will start the 45 day clock for an update to the FS. Potential financiers all know what is going on. They know an update is coming. I cannot believe any of them will make a final decision until they see this FS and have some time to evaluate it. Until we get the revised FS no one even knows how much financing is needed.
I watched that video from late May again. I got to the point where Scott displayed the new flow sheet, stoped the video, and zoomed in. This is a MAJOR change. They are starting almost from scratch for the entire hydromet plant. It is much simpler than the previous design. Scott says he believes it will reduce both CAPEX and OPEX. This is all great news but they have to prove that it all works and does what is intended. The only way to prove that is with a demo plant that includes a kiln.
I also reviewed some sections of the last FS. It emphasizes that all the various processes in the hydromet plant are well known, proven to work, and have been used for many years in various plants. I believe that is not the case for this new design. I believe it is much newer and more innovative technology. I have no problem with that and applaud their efforts. But this makes it even more important that they actually demonstrate that it all works.
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