Replies to post #727182 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[nagoya1]

Can you post how much money the gov paid for the FNMA warrants...that might change the way you feel about the 79.9% govt owned warrrants.
FNMA

[jog49]

YOU HAVE NO CLUE!

And quit using that "80% stake" figure. It is 79.9% for a very specific and strategic reason.

[kthomp19]

Plan is to retain earnings as much as possible so less dilution to common of which they hold 80% stake. Good to be on the side of govt when RRR happens, they make lot of money for taxpayers and so do we.

That's pretty optimistic. If Treasury converts the seniors to commons instead of exercising the warrants, they can capture all of the warrant value and nearly everything that otherwise would have gone to the existing common.

Treasury clearly doesn't think exercising the warrants will result in any liability more than $5B. Converting the seniors to common instead would increase that liability by 25%, or $6.25B max overall.

Capturing an extra $10-20B (or more) of value at a maximum cost of $1.25B is a no-brainer. At that point your thesis (and Ackman's) breaks down.

At $35 they make $$250B we make fortune too.

Why stop at $35? Why not $140 so that Treasury makes a cool trillion?

[Hvp123]

Slide #104 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/irasohnfinal2014.pdf
I believe this is where we will end up, the fact is fnf income has doubled to $34B since 2014

Bill was projecting future value as $45 when ggp was trading at $1.19, slide #49 & #57 5/27/2009 in his presentation…..
“The Buck’s Rebound Begins Here”
Cant post the pdf here

[Donotunderstand]

depends on how GOV views things and what matters to them

do they want the full LP SP paid back - then nothing else matters - they get rich we get crushed

do they want to use their WTS to raise say 100B fast and simple

then they cap total shares at 5-6B and sell their "received" shares at $25 - the price ours has as well

Up to them