Wishful thinking can be problematic. The distinction is what is possible ($100M revenues in three years) and what is probable. This, by the way, is the distinction of critical thinking and it's governance by bounded rationality; a concept that won Herbert Simon a Nobel Prize. So, let me comment on this good post that touched on some important points...
I would agree that it will take time to ramp up Vigabatrin, but that it was noted that LCI will commercialize it means that the 2023 revenues (we just finished FY 2022) will be benefited. Add to the mix the Dexcel wildcard revenues and the combination might be notable, particularly if, over the next three years, Dexcel reaches beyond Israel.
As to the antibiotic, the reality is a partnership requires both sides agree on a distribution partner. That Doxycycline was somewhat a surprise should tell investors that the relationship between Elite and Praxgen has its communication issues and is not what it was under its SunGen banner. But self-interest on both sides says it will get resolved. (LCI is not a notable seller of antibiotics.)
Another set of wildcards are the Adderall rights held by Mikah. On that, the point about cost is ameliorated by the $12M loan they have and it will not require dilution. Since Elite has the funds and will have to service it (pay a monthly fee), they need to use the funds judiciously, it is not meant to sit on the books, it needs to be used to buy the Adderall rights from Mikah and the new building (which they will not pay for entirely in cash, as the tax benefits would be reduced and it would also reduce their cash pile). The funds will also help with R&D spending to generate impetus behind the (7-12?) ANDAs, as well as the ADT NDA, under development.
Now, let's do a little back of the envelope math...and, yes, it requires a subjective set of data points, but its my analysis so I can use my data points...
If we look at Elite's revenues in the three years since their IR & XR approvals, with 2019 revenues $7.6M, we can make some projections about what is possible. The delta between 2019 ($7.6M) & 2022 ($32.3M) revenues is 32.3 - 7.6 = 24.7M. This delta is largely due to the two Adderall drugs.
If we consider that Elite will gain approval for the additional (7-12) ANDAs over the next 2-3 years, and the NDA for the ADF, applying the same average growth metric and add in the current as well as prospective revenues, I see $100M in 3-4 years a very realistic possibility. The caveat is the drug categories of the ANDAs and the size of their prospective market.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
