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06/11/22 2:16 PM

#349 RE: creede #348

Maybe it's not as bad as many think for crpto though. The Fed will probably blink, and only raise .5, and if so that’ll spark a rally.

Recession risks are different now. In the past the average person had more savings.

This chart looks okay: https://www.statista.com/statistics/246234/personal-savings-rate-in-the-united-states/

But when you zoom in, it looks very bad. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

A recession now would create an enormous homeless population. And a knock-on effect in labor markets, which would dampen recovery.

And corporations have been excited about crypto. All that mass adoption we heard about 2 years ago has continued. I think one big reason is companies know digital assets aren't rate sensitive, so crypto can run during a recession if media helps with promotion.

Plus there's a "wealth effect" when average households gets crypto rich.

Fingers crossed.