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Replies to post #43618 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
06/04/22 10:21 AM
The Dow Jones Industrials closing today at 3289970 is immediately trading down about 9.46% for the year from last year's settlement of 3633830. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 3299012, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in June is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during April. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in Dow Jones Industrials, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The Dow Jones Industrials has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2022, which has been a run of 13 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 3321362 and support forming below at 3275234. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of May 16th at 3063576, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 18th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of May 16th, which has been a move of .0806%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 3549222 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 3695265 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 3001480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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