Worst case, oil good drop with a severe recession, I looked at both sides of the coin.
At $100 we are doing good with a small find, At $50 we are ok. At $35 we are in trouble. $200, I do not think we want to be in that world as it will suck.
The key, is #1 - is there commercial oil? If no, its all moot. #2, how much? This determines just how good. I want the reasonable case, anything higher is just icing on the cake.
We still need to get to 300K barrels a day to meet the mission goal. We now know that at the minimum, 5 wells, more likely 50 wells will be needed. If 50, then we need a huge field.
That is all I am doing, yes it is speculating to an extent but the numbers are feasible with what we do know.
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