High possibility. Asking for the full 3 year term for #428 proves they are sure they made a discovery and they have until 2023 to define the petroleum field. (Reg.18(b)(2))
Based on the guidelines they have alot of work to do to submit the data required for the commercial discovery to be approved. If they are sure they had very good natural flow at the mud logging stage they could make an application without the necessary data from the guidelines and submit what data they got from that early testing stage and wait for the back and forth from Yossi to finally announce the commercial discovery. This could take a few more months.
If they need to finish the DST with perforation and enhancement then they would gather the data required of the guidelines for a petroleum discovery and submit the major 4 items. When submitted they would wait no more than 60 days to confirm a commercial discovery if it truly is based on data. This could happen at any time if they submitted an application back in Q4 2021-Q1 2022.