Replies to post #341900 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[dloggold]

i guess we find out shortly if the nih study passes or not . if it does not pass you are correct .

[vinmantoo]

If you really thought Avid was the guilty party here...why would Avid be the one suing from breach of contract? Don't you think the desperate HGEN would be the one to have sued Avid if Avid was truly at fault here? In any event, HGEN is basically out of the backlog and hasn't been in revenue for a long time. This is a non-event, other than Avid might be able to recover up to $11mm in arbitration over time.

Bingo. I don't have a ton of CDMO but I doubled my shares this morning. I also bought more NVAX and ENTA. I love bargains and this broad based market drop provides a lot of bargains.

[peregr]

I sold most of my CDMO to enter the HGEN trade. Lenzilumab did not fail and the trial did not fail. A larger trial was requested by the FDA. We should know the Top Line Results shortly and if they mirror the prior trial, $11M will be a rounding error as the company will go from basically $0 revenue to a billion in sales in a matter of days (government stockpiling). The arbitration is that Avid was not able to produce the batches and put the blame on their sub. The market reaction, most probably is not the damages, but the potential of losing a significant contract. HGEN appears to have replaced the capacity with Catalent. In the last call, Nick did not change guidance and was technically correct in that there wasn't any HGEN revenue in the guidance. I suppose at this point, there is enough demand that Avid has been able to compensate. So both companies should come out of this ok.
My bigger issue is that I would guess institutions knew about this (why else the big drop separate from the market) and we retail have to find out about it buried in another company's 10Q.
We do agree this is a non-event-now.

[dloggold]

its interesting you believe lenzilumab has failed ….

[dloggold]

and if humanigen were desperate they would have been the plaintiff

[Neophius]

This is completely untrue. Avid doesn't like they weren't paid for their failure. They wanted their money and force HGEN to sue the sub-contractor.

"HGEN has a product that has more or less failed". Not according to their peer-reviewed phase 3 trial (might want to go and actually read their Lancet publication), nor their soon to be released ACTIV trial results.

Every other provider was able to fulfill their agreement, and only Avid did not deliver. Avid admitted to this. They can blame their sub-contractor all they like, but they're responsible.

Perhaps you should spend a little more time researching other biotechs before spouting nonsense.