Many points you raise have certainly proven themselves to be true.
Range trading is very visible with FCEL and big shorts have taken advantage of pockets where FCEL's poor execution has chronically worked against them. There is certainly money to be made both ways for the savvy trader. I personally have never shorted FCEL, choosing to instead benefit from the shorting to load up and trade the inevitable run up. It requires patience...but I have other securities in my quiver and am a disciplined trader.
A few considerations going forward:
FCEL's exclusive market position in South Korea now, having removed POSCO, with the replacement modules (20 this year at $3M each) and the remaining 141MW that will need replacing as they have 5 year life present an attractive revenue stream over the next 2-4 years depending on when they were installed. While US projects favor 20 year Power Purchase Agreements, South Korea prefers cash and FCEL turned a 20MW project out in 10 months due to the favorable regulatory conditions.
The critical milestone achieved by FCEL with Exxon assures a $5M investment in Rotterdam with the current research agreement coming to term April 30th. The market will respond generously to a Exxon/FCEL contract for the MCFC Rotterdam plant. A $550B climate bill will rocket FCEL and the administration will need to pass it soon to satisfy the progressive left in their party for the mid term elections...which they have signaled they are now receptive to in talks with Manchin.
Generation revenue continues to increase quarterly and a $1.3B backlog is being met with FCEL's expansion both in annual MW production and additional manpower to meet the existing and future demand...which they have allocated for presently.
With substantial cash in the bank and excellent financing available, the long trend upward is on the horizon IMHO, like a coiled spring.
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Whether you assume a flattening of the yield curve or the average time a recession occurs after the fed begins raising rates, it is reasonable to suggest a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. It could come earlier by the end of 2023 but that would assume the infrequent earlier end of the historic template as seen due to the recent pandemic.
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