"Fact Check - Republicans Wrongly Blame Biden for Rising Gas Prices"
Planet Money January 18, 20226:30 AM ET
Greg Rosalsky
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 13: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives to give remarks on his administration's response to the surge in COVID-19 cases across the country from the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Over the last few months, unflattering stickers of President Biden have been popping up at gas stations across America. They've been spotted in places like Georgia, Ohio, Idaho, and along I-95 between Washington, D.C., and Florida. The stickers typically show Biden pointing at the price of gas, saying "I did that!" We saw one last weekend while filling up at a gas station in Vallejo, California:
A Biden "I did that!" sticker spotted in the wild. Greg Rosalsky
It's hard to say how widespread use of these stickers actually is, but they're all over the Internet. If you search "Biden sticker" on Google, they immediately pop up. In between TikTok videos of orangutans driving golf carts and a chipmunk named Squishy filling up his cheeks with nuts, there are hundreds of videos of TikTokers placing "I did that!" stickers on gas pumps. Dozens of online merchants sell packs of them on sites like Amazon and Etsy, usually for around 8 or 9 bucks for 100 stickers.
Etsy seller JolieJamesStyle typically sells "handmade jewelry with healing properties," but now they're selling Biden "I did that!" stickers. Kara Allbaugh, who owns a small design and marketing company in Columbus, Nebraska, says she started a secondary business selling these stickers on Etsy back in October. She says they've been flying off the shelves. "I don't know how long this will go on for, but it's still funny because now you can just put them on everything, not just gas," she says.
It's not just vandals, pranksters, and TikTokers trying to stick inflation blame on Biden. Last month, Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn), the ranking member of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, joined a virtual committee hearing with a background that featured the Biden "I did that" sticker prominently. "Life is simply more expensive for Americans under the Biden administration," Stauber declared.
Last week, new data revealed that the European Union was seeing a record-high inflation .. https://click.nl.npr.org/?qs=daedc1bf5a74bb12a545f104fe96664e49449902d05e76c612d7f62b7b34b11e1c7501f56a3526baa1e51830eb474b8d2c502969d336629b .. rate of 5% in December, the highest in its twenty-year history. Canada is seeing the highest rate of inflation in two decades. Ditto South Korea. Turkey. The United Kingdom. Countries, big and small, conservative-led and progressive-led, are grappling with surging consumer prices as global demand outstrips supply. It's one big global inflation-fest, and no single leader seems to have the power to stop it.
All these countries have one thing in common: they're all struggling to recover from a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that continues to disrupt the supply side of the economy, hampering the ability of businesses, workers, and the global supply chain to operate at full capacity and satisfy boomeranging consumer demand. Rather than putting a Biden "I did that" sticker on products with skyrocketing prices, it's probably more accurate to say "COVID did that."
That said, there is an ongoing, legitimate debate about the economic effects of President Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Massive federal spending packages to provide relief from COVID began under President Trump and initially had bipartisan support. President Biden continued this spending spree with the American Rescue Plan, which supporters argue saved the economy and continues to fuel its rise. The White House says America's "economic recovery is stronger and faster than anywhere else in the world." Data backs this up. Economic growth has been significantly higher .. https://click.nl.npr.org/?qs=a14ac3dbe7f00e1afc520354a026070b772eb6742e2d909cc0e032d440fee2733127157dc0063cc5aad5d3982f0cb2cf29125fc07d84d946 .. in the U.S. than in other advanced nations. The U.S. stock market surged almost 27% in 2021. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9%. On many measures, America's recovery looks great, and the recovery wouldn't have been as strong without all these extra Biden bucks sloshing around the economy.
But, at the same time, critics argue, all this money sloshing around led to excess demand for goods and services, contributing to supply chain overload, shortages, and rising inflation. The Pew Research Center finds .. https://click.nl.npr.org/?qs=a14ac3dbe7f00e1a538892f0aa1946300467a5b7a2c1ae809c615911adf546e592ece22b85dcf188c9514e882316d0b32f64e976bc048458 .. that between 2019 and 2021, the U.S. saw one of the biggest inflation rate increases in the world, behind only Brazil and Turkey. The humongous surge in demand for durable goods seen in America over the last couple years was not seen in Europe or Asia, at least not at the same scale. Observers blame America's large stimulus packages, which dwarfed Europe's and gave many Americans a big chunk of money to spend. This money helped whet America's seemingly insatiable appetite for foreign-made products, which has been a major reason for the global shipping chaos that has been one cause of increasing prices.
"Inflation is a global challenge, appearing in virtually every developed nation as it emerges from the pandemic economic slump," President Biden said last week in a statement. "America is fortunate that we have one of the fastest growing economies — thanks in part to the American Rescue Plan — which enables us to address price increases and maintain strong, sustainable economic growth. That is my goal and I am focused on reaching it every day."
On tackling inflation more broadly, the president's powers are also limited. Economists, including President Biden's own Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have suggested that lowering tariffs would help .. https://click.nl.npr.org/?qs=bb174408fe8ea8e6b23b581ff6840c74d913f3b9dab63eeee6289d8762540693b3bdd2607a41ac9e0ced86e18726d4663526dbe6eb64b089 , but that would likely only make a small dent, especially while the global supply chain remains clogged. The power to tame inflation really resides with the Federal Reserve, which is independent. It can (and likely will) raise interest rates to try and bring prices down, but that will also likely mean an economic slowdown, pain for American workers, and a decline in stock, housing, and other asset markets.
It's A Crummy Time To Be A World Leader
Back in March — with the rollout of vaccines and the popular American Rescue Plan expected to put the wind back in America's sails — a newly elected Biden enjoyed a 59% approval rating, according to the Reuters/Ipsos polling tracker. But, over the last six months, the pandemic has refused to go quietly into the night and inflation has taken off. Biden now has a 45% approval rating.
[INSERT: Of course anti-pandemic mitigation measures conservatives blame all of the Covid situation on Biden too. In fact in that case they themselves are obviously at more fault than Biden could ever be.]
Had everyone gotten vaccinated, or had the Delta and Omicron variants not burst onto the scene, the economy and President Biden's approval ratings might well look a lot better. Economists have been telling us since the beginning of the pandemic that the best way to recover from the pandemic is to end the pandemic. It's hard to end the pandemic when large chunks of society aren't cooperating.
Biden isn't alone among world leaders tanking in the polls. At the beginning of the pandemic, most leaders actually saw a rise in their poll numbers. Pollsters credited what's known as the "rally-round-flag effect" that tends to happen when nations face existential threats. But now leaders are struggling with surging prices and pandemic fatigue while the pandemic still rages.
Unfortunately for President Biden, voters show a strong tendency to blame presidents for economic problems (and credit them for economic gains), whether or not their policies are the actual cause. The White House has been toying with a messaging strategy to try and deflect inflation blame onto the monopoly power and greed of Corporate America. So far, it doesn't seem to be working, and a report .. https://click.nl.npr.org/?qs=40a643d537317de2d088c5a178f8b8a4caae7930157a3c404a441f6becc2e95f00677d82d99e5d866dc355b8f3cfcd9ad8649bdfd10c843d .. from The Washington Post says even some White House insiders dislike this approach. While monopoly power and greed do result in higher prices for consumers, there's no evidence to suggest that they've gotten worse and significantly driven prices up over the last year.
It's been said that sales of Halloween masks of presidential candidates can predict who will win presidential elections. If you're a Democrat, you should hope that sticker sales aren't a predictor for midterm elections.
"Fact Check - Republicans Wrongly Blame Biden for Rising Gas Prices [...] “Covid changed the game, not President Biden,” said Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, which tracks gasoline prices. “U.S. oil production fell in the last eight months of President Trump’s tenure. Is that his fault? No.” P - “The pandemic brought us to our knees,” Mr. De Haan added. [...] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only compounded the issues. [...] The notion that the United States gained “energy independence” under Mr. Trump, and reversed course under Mr. Biden, is also misleading. P - Even before Mr. Trump took office, the United States had been projected .. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29433 .. to become a net energy exporter in the 2020s “because favorable geology and technological developments result in the production of oil and natural gas at lower costs,” according to the Energy Information Administration. [...] [... re Keystone... ] Even if Mr. Biden had greenlighted the project and TransCanada, now known as TC Energy, had won its court battles, it is unlikely that the pipeline would have been operational today given that the company estimated in March 2020 that it would have entered into service in 2023"
Republicans say the White House is responsible for high gas prices. That’s ridiculous.
By Nitish Pahwa March 15, 20229:37 AM
Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Getty Images Plus and Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images.
As gas prices have surged over the past several months—and shot up even further following Russia’s incursion into Ukraine—Republicans have predictably tried to pin blame on the White House.
But President Joe Biden did not cause this. In fact, other than sanctions against Russia—which the GOP broadly supported—the primary reasons why filling up your tank has gotten more expensive over the past year have almost nothing to do with America’s chief executive. This shouldn’t be a surprise, since presidents almost never have much direct control over gas prices. But unfortunately voters act like they do, which is sort of the sad cosmic joke of American politics.
But I digress. Let’s debunk the argument, shall we?
Why Absolutely Nothing Republicans Are Saying About Gas Prices Makes Sense
Members of the GOP have been saying that a big reason the cost of gas soared over the past few months is that the president simply hasn’t let oil companies drill enough.
Specifically, they say, the White House has bottled up American fossil fuel production by issuing fewer oil leases on federal lands and by stopping pipeline construction.
It is true that U.S. oil production is lower now than it was in in February of 2020, when it hit an all-time record high of 12.8 million barrels. (That was before the market crashed at the onset of the coronavirus crisis.) But based on the GOP’s rhetoric, you might be tempted to think that U.S. oil production had collapsed since Biden stepped into the Oval Office.
Indeed, much to the frustration of climate activists, Biden has actually done very little to slow fossil fuel production on federal property.
Biden did promise to halt new drilling on federal lands during his campaign. And in the first months of his term, he temporarily paused the sale of new public oil leases. But a federal judge struck down this pause in June .. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/climate/biden-drilling-federal-land.html , and then, in November, the Biden administration held the single largest-ever auction .. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/12/biden-oil-gas-gulf-mexico-interior-drilling-lease-sale.html .. of oil and gas drilling leases from the Gulf of Mexico, locking in a future guarantee of more than 1 billion new barrels of oil from that region. (It’s worth noting that the administration was not required to make this sale, as the Justice Department itself admitted—it was entirely the government’s choice.)
More to the point: Even if Biden had approved the Gulf of Mexico tracts earlier in his term, or leased more federal lands before the current pause, it wouldn’t have made much difference in today’s oil prices. It would have taken .. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/03/us-oil-natural-gas-price-surge-energy-independence/626979/ .. many months—in some cases, years—to extract, refine, and put those billion barrels on the market.
The Real Issue: Oil Companies Are Actually Just Trying to Pad Their Profits
The real reason U.S. oil production hasn’t returned to peak production levels has less to do with Biden’s energy policies than with the fossil fuel industry’s desire to earn a buck.
Just listen to oil executives themselves. “Whether it’s $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we’re not going to change our growth plans,”the CEO of Pioneer, which is the largest oil producer in the Permian Basin, the key oil-producing area of the Southwest, said at a Bloomberg .. https://www.vox.com/22959903/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-price-europe-us-exports-climate-change .. event last month. “If the president wants us to grow, I just don’t think the industry can grow anyway.”
Energy companies and oil-rich Middle Eastern monarchies aren’t the only ones cashing in. An L.A. Times report .. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-03-09/most-expensive-gas-stations-in-la .. notes that some of the California gas stations that were charging $7 per gallon were setting their prices far above state and national averages because they found that desperate drivers were willing to pay—even if it hurts.
Why All This Actually Sort of Matters
Aside from political points scoring, why does any of this matter? Well, it has implications for a policy debate that’s unfolding in Washington.
At the moment, the Biden administration is looking to secure new sources of oil to offset the loss of Russian crude, and has been talking to Iran and Venezuela about increasing production in return for reducing sanctions on those countries. But this move has triggered a bipartisan backlash from foreign policy hawks, who don’t want the U.S. doing business with either of those nations. Republicans have introduced a bill .. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-talks-to-ease-oil-sanctions-on-venezuela-get-blowback-11647118157 .. to ban the U.S. from purchasing oil from those countries, and have argued that Biden should be focused on increasing U.S. production instead.
This position only makes sense if you think the Biden administration is holding the U.S. oil industry back. But the TL;DR here is that it is not Biden—it’s the drillers themselves who are holding it back.
Oil prices have come down quite a bit in recent days thanks to various global developments, but they are still hovering above $100 a barrel. Unless our government is willing to do business with some unsavory regimes, American drivers are probably going to keep feeling pain at the pump.
But as long as they’re blaming Biden, Republicans will probably be just fine with that.
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