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02/02/07 9:25 AM

#552 RE: Split-the-Aces #551

I used just the values of the public companies. I don't factor any variables but I note that there are private holdings with no known values to use. Plus, the numbers I run are thumbnails on cocktail napkins at best and then rounded off. In the pink sheet world, just getting close is brave enough to try without parsing the numbers through the decimals.

At the heart, any point I was trying to make is that a holding company doesn't sell based on the future value of its holdings. If OSSG holds shares of EFTI for example, the value of OSSG includes the EFTI shares at their actual price at that moment -- not some future value/multiple.

Why? Well, in my example, say EFTI is trading at $1 (my dream) because the market believes it will trade at 20 time future earnings and those earnings will be .05. Or they think there will be a buyout or a huge deal will happen or someting. Whatever, all the speculative value and the actual enterprise value in already in the shareprice. There is no way a company like OSSG can then value those shares more than the market because OSSG and its shareholders believe it should go higher. The belief of furture value is in the shares at the current price.

And lastly, holding companies or funds or baskets or similar almost always sell at a discount to NAV. This is due to illiquidity. If you hold the actual shares that mirror the shares in a holding company, to can trade at will, maximize winners and cut losers. Well traded holding companies do exist - usually hedge funds - and they do just this but generally, it's a buy and hold situation and often the hold is in 144 shares to boot. So the NAV's chance of appreciation is looked at longer term than shorter.