Hey Randy, you're back! And, no, I haven't contradicted myself. Each time I make mention of what's about to happen in my opinion, it's based on what the stock is doing at that moment in relation to what it's done in the recent past. If you look at that chart above, you'll see we've been now stuck in this channel since July. It's hit that upper level some 5 times and each time it appears at first glance as if it was going to be breaking out each time. It's been my experience that usually 3 or 4 times are a charm.
What's different apparently this time is that no one is going to be a buyer of size that will push this into a new uptrend until this damn options thing is dealt with and then they report FULLY and give complete guidance as if it were a normal quarter. Look at BRCM's chart. It's practically doing the same thing. I think when it got sold off to the low $20s, it was just too cheap for many to pass up. But now, it's stuck right at $30ish and isn't budging until they also come out with their full report this month.
I have always been a big supporter of this stock and still am and know what the potential is, as does everyone here. What's pissing us all off, and yes, me included, is that what normally would have been a breakout weeks ago, has always been reversed into another down cycle.
This stock, along with BRCM, is not trading like it 'should'. It 'should' be rallying with the market. But the $SOX index is stuck in the mud too.
So, here's the current situation the way I see it - Both BRCM and MRVL report this month and both reports should be complete and full and it should end this misery of this options BS. That then allows the analysts and the fund managers to quantify both of their futures with solid numbers that they can feel extremely comfortable relying on because companies like BRCM and MRVL now know what happens when you fool with the numbers.
Once that sets in, and it will most likely take a few days after the report on Feb 15th, you'll start to see the stock move as 'they' start to buy it for their portfolios.
Now, between now and March sometime, we have a little cycle down move ahead of us. That will dampen any real moves in the market overall and MRVL, no matter what they say.
Once that gets out of the way, sometime in March or April we'll see the market start rock again. As that happens, stocks like MRVL and BRCM will most likely lead the rally simply because they have been left behind. Both of them will sport the most promising future growth of most of the tech stocks as the new tech cycle begins with Vista ramps and of course things like the iPhone and all the new gadgets that both companies contribute to. It should be a no brainer about where both are headed once the air clears.
But Nasdaq is not going anywhere without both BRCM and MRVL. I think the only thing holding it back is the large institutional buyers who are the real ones who move stocks not touching these things until they are 'safe'. And that should finally come the end of this month.
Until then, MRVL is stuck in the channel with the lowest downside risk the $16s. But I can't imagine MRVL ever seeing the $16s again on just pure valuation with all the things it's got in the pipeline.
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