Replies to post #377009 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[LIVED]

Here is a few more things to think about when the name Merck shows up:

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/merck-manipulated-science-about-drug-vioxx

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-vaccine-idUSL1N0YQ0W820150604

Just a couple of things to think about before you swallow a molnupiravir pill.

[loanranger]

You're welcome.
I felt it important to distinguish between molnupiravir(EIDD-2810), the drug that Merck reported on yesterday as evidencing success in their non-hospitalized patient trial, and MK7110, a totally different drug that Merck stopped testing in April. Somehow you had conflated the two.

Here is the whole quote with 2 additional reports.

"Based on an interim analysis of data from the phase 2, dose-finding portion (Part 1) of 2 ongoing phase 2/3 trials evaluating molnupiravir, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics have decided to halt the MOVe-IN study for hospitalized COVID-19 patients and proceed with the phase 3 portion (Part 2) of the MOVe-OUT study in outpatients with COVID-19"

https://www.empr.com/home/news/molnupiravir-merck-ridgeback-oral-antiviral-investigational-covid-19-treatment/

That's a quote from an April article (as are your other two quotes), but it's not a quote from MERCK. Nonetheless it's true.


To clarify:
Merck bought a cancer drug (MK7110) as part of its acquisition of a company called OncoImmune and tested it as a treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. It was dropped by Merck in April because the FDA sought data that would have drawn out the trial, something that Merck didn't want to do. There was no reason at all to raise that drug's discontinued trial in a discussion of molnupiravir.
https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-discontinue-development-of-mk-7110-for-covid-19/

On the same day that Merck made that announcement in April and in a SEPARATE release, Merck announced it's decision to discontinue its trial of molnupiravir in hospitalized patients but to continue its trial of molnupiravir in outpatients:
"Data from MOVe-IN indicate that molnupiravir is unlikely to demonstrate a clinical benefit in hospitalized patients, who generally had a longer duration of symptoms prior to study entry; therefore, the decision has been made not to proceed to Phase 3."
"Based on a planned interim analysis of data from the Phase 2, dose-finding portion (Part 1) of two ongoing placebo-controlled Phase 2/3 trials evaluating molnupiravir administered twice a day for five days in outpatients (MOVe-OUT) and hospitalized patients (MOVe-IN) with COVID-19, and from a previously completed Phase 2a dose-ranging study in outpatients, the decision has been made to proceed with the Phase 3 portion (Part 2) of MOVe-OUT in outpatients with COVID-19, evaluating the 800 mg dose of molnupiravir twice daily."
https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-provide-update-on-progress-of-clinical-development-program-for-molnupiravir-an-investigational-oral-therapeutic-for-the-treatment-of-mild-to-moderate-covid-19/

Yesterday Merck made an announcement about molnupiravir. The details have been posted previously so I'll just post the headline:
"Merck and Ridgeback’s Investigational Oral Antiviral Molnupiravir Reduced the Risk of Hospitalization or Death by Approximately 50 Percent Compared to Placebo for Patients with Mild or Moderate COVID-19 in Positive Interim Analysis of Phase 3 Study"


IMO, any selling of IPIX shares based solely on that Merck news was probably an overreaction. It has already been hammered home that B and M are addressing different patient populations. But any success of M in its target population acts to reduce the number of patients available for treatment with B should its use be approved (EUA or otherwise)....maybe not a good thing for IPIX owners but potentially a very good thing for the world. I think that the more likely explanation for the hit to IPIX shares is less about the specifics of the impact of the good news about M than it is the first factual showing that B could just be one drug of several, or many, to have the ability to treat CoVid.
This has never held any water and MRK's announcement should have made it clear:
"Leo is holding all the cards and he knows it"



ps. The Merck pill still needs an EUA before any of the above matters.