It's been a long time since we saw this indicator this low... Street sentiment has dropped into the gutter, and I understand. Not alot of potential good news on the horizon, the debt and risk of higher taxes, the slowdown, the turning off of free money... Yes, these economic things are all just noise, until they actually have an effect on the playing field, but the money has gotten very concerned about the outlook. Look closely at the peaks here.
Top at the beginning of 2017, tops in 2018, etc... This is a pre-indicator and runs a month or two early. When this is falling, the market is also dropping, or at least is having a difficult time climbing and is consolidating. Yes, we're watching everything very closely, hour by hour, but the view from a mile up has gotten very gloomy. Here's the market during the past 5 years.
I know the correlation isn't spot on, but concerned money is cautious money and many times chooses to just walk away. The tide could really recede here over the next few months.
What you are doing is reactionary to price movements. Means you're already too late.
Market is designed to make people money who buy today for next year.
You're trying to compete in a high frequency trading world, watching liquidity levels that they create.
Need to be 60% right to even make anything. 50% is break even.
There is no liquidity inside those numbers for you on a longer than a day average.
Everyone knows SPY is probably going to go up or down .3% within the day. It's almost a given really. The up or down first, and the exactly when is the issue.
Just knowing a price point isn't enough. Need to know exactly what time of day that price point will hit.
You have 2 numbers...if it goes up first...you buy the down...if it goes down first you buy the up...if it goes sideways for any amount of time afterwards...the time erosion kills you.
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