While we see tremendous long-term potential in CRXM, the types of gains that you are expecting in the next 12 months, in our view, are very unrealistic and likely won't happen.
Achieving gains of 20X, 30X or 50X will, most likely, take years to come to fruition.
We say this for a number of reasons:
First, we don't believe that there will be any real interest coming from investors until the company announces the starting date of the Phase 3 clinical trials.
Before they are able to do that, they are going to need to create the financing mechanism to be able to fund the trials. That is going to be a very important aspect to the company's overall strategy moving forward.
It's extremely unlikely that they will use CRXM stock as the financing mechanism. With the share price where it is, that wouldn't make much sense, and would create massive dilution. We doubt that would be acceptable to CRXM management or Nostrum.
More likely it would be some sort of revenue sharing arrangement or licensing deal, based on global sales.
When we last looked at the balance sheet, the company was starved for cash (see page 42 of the Super 10-K) just to continue their operations, and the "going concern" clause is in the auditor's report for a reason.
The updated financials are critical, but we doubt that there will be any significant updates in them that would attract buyers. At this point, it is merely a perfunctory exercise to satisfy regulators and keep the company from falling into a OTC Markets black hole.
Getting off the pink sheets will also be important, but remember that with that, along with re-establishing themselves as a fully-reporting company, will come significant ongoing accounting and regulatory
costs.
The company has very limited revenues at this point, and it will probably remain that way for at least the next couple of years.
Perhaps with the royalty payments from the sale of the Excellagen product, they will receive some of the $3.35 million that CRXM is owed from Olaregen Therapeutix, Inc. We think, that $3.35 million number in royalty payments to CRXM will most likely take years to reach.
Remember, that CRXM receives royalty payments of only 10% on Excellagen, so it would take total global sales of $33.5 million to hit that $3.35 million number.
The Phase 3 trial is probably not going to be completed until sometime in late 2022 or early 2023, and of course as we all know there is no guarantee of receiving final approval from the FDA.
Lastly, we would point out that this stock is now held mostly by those investors with a short-term focus. Even if the shares do head north in a heartbeat (no pun intended), that advance will most likely be met with a substantial amount of selling from the new shareholder base that could care less about waiting 2-3 years for the big payoff.
You may get an initial spike somewhere along the line, but it probably would fade very fast and settle back down after the sellers have taken their short term profits.
While we share your overall enthusiasm for CRXM, we just don't see enough happening in the next 12-months to get major traction in the stock price, to the high levels that you are expecting.
Please feel free to offer a rebuttal, if you are so inclined.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
