Replies to post #690183 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Mnemonic]

What exactly does the phrase "conspiracy theory" mean anyways?

Conspiracy theory:

a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.

In this case, it would be a belief that someone manipulated the courts, or that the court manipulated the opinion so that justice would not be served. While it may appear this way, it's better to assume that the highest court in the country is acting in good faith and simply thinks this is a takings case.


I also have always been a believer that you shouldn't attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity; I don't think SCOTUS really understands the capital structure, the statute, the events in conservatorship, etc. that are critical to this case. That doesn't mean they conspired to screw over shareholders.

What does it imply? How does that influence one's thought process? After all, truth is the goal, isn't it?

Conspiracy theory implies a few things:

1. That you believe things are being done and manipulated by some vague outside force. This means you're open to ideas that may, by definition, have no basis in existing facts or evidence. This is dangerous because at this point you're no longer seeking truth, you are seeking out facts to support your opinions. Disproving conspiracy theories to someone who has made up their mind is also nearly impossible.

2. Because the system is "rigged," you're not responsible for your actions or their outcomes. In this case, you are not responsible for your shitty investment decisions. Either SCOTUS abandoned their duty just to fuck us (despite the Trump appointees), or the government conspired to influence the courts, or Wall Street influenced the government. Whatever.

I'm not saying don't believe these things, but understand that you are ultimately in control of your own decision making. I truly believe that once you think you're in a rigged game, you've already lost. You should get the hell out of your investment.

I don't think we're in a rigged game. I misjudged APA claims in SCOTUS; I thought we had a decent chance to win and I thought downside risk was only about 25%. I was wrong. But I also expect a takings win. I have some confidence in the courts, and I actually have some small optimism for an administrative solution under Biden (no one wants housing to implode on their watch, at least).